Manual Penalty! Being honest, I have worked many such cases and revoked penalties for dozens of client since April, 2012 but I have never seen a single site recovered 100%. Best recover ratio till date is 60 to 70% as far as my experience is concerned.
Even after revoking manual penalty, it takes months to stabilize. Google keep revoked websites under observation for sometime. It short, even after removal of penalty, you are not our of Google penalty for months. This is confirmed by John Mueller, Google Trends Analyst in Europe, was responding to a post made on the Google help forums who was filing for reconsideration request after disavowing links. While a lot of the discussion from other users revolved around the nuances of continuing to disavow links while filing for reconsideration requests, John Mueller mentioned :
"Finally, looking at your site’s history, it looks like you’ve done quite a bit for quite some time, and it looks like our algorithms have picked up on that too. So while resolving the manual action is a good way to start, you need to keep in mind that it can possibly take quite some time for our algorithms to regain trust in your site even after that."
So, there are no real time frames in deed. Try to recover current website and starting a new website is not a bad idea, who knows, with quality Link-building, robust On Page, consistent Blogging & social media sharing, you would rank your keywords earlier than old website!
Best of luck!
Regards