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Rand has a good post at http://www.seomoz.org/blog/wrong-page-ranking-in-the-results-6-common-causes-5-solutions that should help you get a handle on this.

I totally agree with you Matt. Nowadays even Google's Keyword suggestion tool is crap. Just check on what Rand talked about in a blog entry here on SEOmoz: http://www.seomoz.org/blog/be-careful-using-adwords-for-keyword-research If it was me, I would go for Matt's solution: allocate time for keywords research, try to figure out how you potential visitor is thinking. Gr., Istvan