Its impossible to know, but you can research a few things to try to confirm your suspicion:
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Where are most of the links for the affected keywords coming from (if they're mostly from these forums, that's more evidence for your hypothesis)
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What about the unaffected keyword links? If they're also mostly from these forums that's evidence against your theory.
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What about on-site SEO? Have you made any site changes recently? Are your pages keyword cannibalizing each other?
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What do the link profiles of your competitors look like? Did they get most of their links from these forums or elsewhere?
