Ranking reports don't seem to match reality
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seomoz shows our site at #1 for a keyword that we're actuallly #2
we seem to rank #2 even when I disable personalization (setting URL token) or using incognito mode on chrome.
Any insight on how seomoz verifies these ranks, and if I can place credibility in them?
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Sorry I don't have the link, but SEOMoz's rankings tools were recently shown to be the most accurate in the industry. There are a lot of things impacting search results - which datacenter you are getting results from, geographical area (regardless of disabling personalization), and google result split testing. You can rest assured that no ranking tool is going to give you the exact rank that everyone sees because nearly no one sees the exact same result set. However, SEOMoz should give you a good idea, and your analytics should confirm that with a boost in traffic.
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Your reality will almost certainly be different to another persons. I tend to use a number of ranking checkers (every so often) just to compare results. As long as your avg. position is staying in the area you want it to be then I wouldn't worry too much.
DD