Google's Mobile Update: What We Know So Far (Updated 3/25)
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We're getting a lot of questions about the upcoming Google mobile algorithm update, and so I wanted to start a discussion that covers what we know at this point (or, at least, what we think we know). If you have information that contradicts this or expands on it, please feel free to share it in the comments. This is a developing situation.
1. What is the mobile update?
On February 26th, Google announced that they would start factoring in mobile-friendliness as a ranking signal. The official announcement is here. Of note, "This change will affect mobile searches in all languages worldwide and will have a significant impact in our search results."
2. When will the update happen?
In an unprecedented move, Google announced that the algorithm update will begin on April 21st. Keep in mind that the roll-out could take days or weeks.
3. Will this affect my desktop rankings?
As best we know - no. Mobile-friendliness will only impact mobile rankings. This is important, because it suggests that desktop and mobile rankings, which are currently similar, will diverge. In other words, even though desktop and mobile SERPs look very different, if a site is #1 on desktop, it's currently likely to be #1 on mobile. After April 21st, this may no longer be the case.
4. Is this a boost or a demotion?
This isn't clear, but practically it doesn't matter that much and the difference can be very difficult to measure. If everyone gets moved to the front of the line except you, you're still at the back of the line. Google has implied that this isn't a Capital-P Penalty in the sense we usually mean it. Most likely, the mobile update is coded as a ranking boost.
5. Is this a domain- or page-based update?
At SMX West, Google's Gary Ilyes clarified that the update would operate on the page level. Any mobile-friendly page can benefit from the update, and an entire site won't be demoted simply because a few pages aren't mobile friendly.
6. Is mobile-friendly on a scale or is it all-or-none?
For now, Google seems to be suggesting that a page is either mobile-friendly or not. Either you make the cut or you don't. Over time, this may evolve, but expect the April 21st launch to be all-or-none.
7. How can I tell if my site/page is mobile-friendly?
Google has provided a mobile-friendly testing tool, and pages that are mobile-friendly should currently show the "Mobile-friendly" label on mobile searches (this does not appear on desktop searches). Some SEOs are saying that different tools/tests are showing different results, and it appears that the mobile-friendly designation has a number of moving parts.
8. How often will mobile data refresh?
Gary also suggested (and my apologies for potentially confusing people on Twitter) that this data will be updated in real-time. Hopefully, that means we won't have to worry about Penguin-style updates that take months to happen. If a page or site becomes mobile-friendly, it should benefit fairly quickly.
We're actively working to re-engineer the MozCast Project for mobile rankings and have begun collecting data. We will publish that data as soon as possible after April 21st (assuming it;s useful and that Google sticks to this date). We're also tracking the presence of the "Mobile-friendly" tag. Currently (as of 3/25), across 10,000 page-1 mobile results, about 63% of URLs are labeled as "Mobile-friendly". This is a surprisingly large number (to me, at least) - we'll see how it changes over time.
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Wow Good info Dr. Pete!
I'm a little surprised Google didn't give more a lead time warning, but we have known for awhile something like this was coming.
Great info,
Don
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Excellent resource Dr. Pete. Thanks for this. It'll be a likely place to link back to in the weeks to come. Are there any twitter accounts or other reliably updated sources to reference people too as well as the date approaches and passes?
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Unfortunately, Google tends not to communicate these things directly on social media (or, at least, not consistently) - and, when they do, it's usually Google+. As I personally have data, I'll share it on my account (@dr_pete) and/or the MozCast account (@mozcast).
Barry Schwartz (@rustybrick) is a good bet, too.
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Excellent. Was thinking of Barry too when I first saw your update. I have a feeling there's going to be a lot chatter and some wild MozCast weather in April...
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Any further news on a mobile index? Realistically, how can this update not affect search results if there is no mobile index in place? I would be curious to see the results in m.domains and /mobile folders vs responsive design. Previously, Google said there would be no ranking difference, that the mobile experience was the most important part of this update, but I have a sneaking suspicion that the responsive designs may do slightly better than the other mobile versions of sites.
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Thanks, Pete!

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A little selfishly, I am glad that there wasn't too much notice given. No one else in my industry has a mobile friendly site, so this will be huge for my company. Shame on me, lol.
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It's unclear whether this is some kind of re-ranking layer (and those certainly are in play today for local and other factors) or if mobile pages will get a separate index. As this gets more complex, though, and they want to do more with it, my gut feeling is that we may see the index split. I doubt they'll give us much more info on that topic for now, though - they like to keep details of the index pretty well guarded.
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I'm in the middle of a freebie deal for a mom & pop, simply because all of their local competitors aren't 'mobile friendly'. They aren't in the most affluent area, and rely on foot traffic, so it's safe to say that mobile results are critical. Hopefully I can get everything launched soon.
I'm not promising them the moon. I've made my motivations clear. It's a bit of my own curiosity mixed with the warm fuzzies I get from turning the 'little guy' into a beast among 'little guys'.
I'm certain there are measurable ways to be 'mobile friendlier than thou'. I just don't think it would be terribly ethical to knowingly hold back with a 'live subject'. Ah well, I'm sure there's something in there for IMEC.
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Great resource, Pete! Really interested to see how mobile and desktop search results will differ.
Also, thanks for the link to Google's Mobile-Friendly Test - I hadn't seen that yet.
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You make a very good point. It is kind of like a little reward for those like yourself who have been proactive and adaptive without being told to be. Kudos,
Don
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Thanks for giving a summary of yesterday's G+ hangout
Super informative. Frankly, I'm a little excited about this mobile update. Since it seems like desktop and mobile rankings will now begin to diverge, I imagine more tools will surface that tracks a site's mobile rankings (hint hint Moz 
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One thing you didn't cover that I'm curious about is: Would it be better to serve a separate mobile page or to make the entire website responsive?
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Right now, Google is saying there is not a difference between the two, however, I think most people would say that Responsive is the way to go.
I think the only thing that could hinder that thought is if the responsive design couldn't produce enough functionality or visual appeal to have a good user experience. Some stores just have too many product options to really make a responsive design work, so they use a mobile version of the site. Google likes uniformity, which I why most people prefer the responsive design.
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Another consideration: if someone links to a responsive site--whether it was from mobile or non--the link would remain the same. That should help as well. That way there's less need to prompt users to "Switch to Desktop" or vice versa.
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Agreed Monica
I'm looking forward to this update lol!
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Hey, Pete!
Long time no see! (This is Amanda from Orbit posing as Andy

Thanks for the Q&A's. I have another quick question. If a site is fully fluid and it's still not passing Google's Mobile-Friendly test through their tool, will Google not label this as "mobile-friendly" in search results?
I've been running into this on a few client sites and the actual "issue" is usually within a blog post on the website. An image not sized to standards or something small like that or the font size is too small.
Just wondering what your thoughts are on that? Thanks much!
Amanda
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Nice, Travis! I'm eager to find out how this project turns out. (I'm sure our YouMoz readers would be as well, ahem.)

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Hi, Amanda! In the cases where you have identified the issue to be within a particular blog post, do the other pages on the same site pass the mobile-friendly test when you enter the URLs one at time? And are any of those same pages showing the mobile-friendly label in the mobile SERPs?