How important is it to include the target keyword phrase in the page URL?
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If I want to target a keyword phrase to a particular phrase, but do not want to change the URL of that page, will that negatively impact my rankings?
I am also wondering if I can get around it by creating a new, short URL that 301 redirects to the original URL. Would that be as effective as including the keyword in the original URL?
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It wouldn't help you to create a new short url unless you redirect the old url to the new. Depending on the competition you can still rank good with a url that doesn't contain the keyword/phrase.
From a user experience it's of course much better with the keyword/phrase in the url. People see what your page is about just by studying the url.
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Totally agree with Stefan on this point.
Although, why are you so keen to keep the original URL? Already built a lot of links to it? Is it a homepage?
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If I want to target a keyword phrase to a particular phrase, but do not want to change the URL of that page, will that negatively impact my rankings?
A better way to say it is you are missing an opportunity to make a change which can positively impact your rankings.
A page's URL has a very minor effect on rankings. There are two larger secondary effects. First, if you offer a clear, relevant URL your click-through-rate may increase. Additionally, when others link to your page by copying and pasting the URL, you will naturally have good anchor text which is very helpful, especially in our post-penguin world.
Stefan correct shared there is not a reason to create a new short URL.