When you provide traffic estimates, do you factor in CTR?

[nicole.healthline]

There are several studies that show CTR based on position.

When a client asks for traffic estimates do you multiply CTR by estimated search volume? Why or why not?

[RobertFisher]

Michelle

Yes, as a general rule you can say that a given position has a relative CTR, but in my opinion you are not served to go to things like this with any but the most sophisticated client. The reason being that one vertical versus another will be different. The level of competitiveness will be critical in determining CTR. If you are stating a given CTR or traffic estimate, I would assume you are also stating that there will be a given position for a given term/page? What if three new competitors pop us tomorrow (yes, it does happen).

I approach marketing differently with clients. First, what do they wish to accomplish? Are they accomplishing that now? What have they tried? What has/has not worked? etc. Then, I speak to the level of competition for a given set of terms in a given arena: Attorney: Business Bankruptcy for example. Do they want national or local clients? What changes are they prepared to make? New site? New content? etc.

Then, I want them to understand that what we are going to do is start at a point X. We will make changes, keep them appraised of each change (not micro though), keep them appraised of ranking, etc. Our approach will be "Holistic" in that we are going to take care of local, directories, citation sites, etc. We are going to insure on page SEO and quality content. We are going to know what key words will be more important, and we are not going to guarantee anything. We believe if they are willing to do X + Y + Z and if they understand it is not a static (one time) process over time we will change their outcomes. 
We show them where they are and then we track where they are going. So, if it is selling jars of Peanut butter online. How many did they sell without us for each of the last 52 weeks and we will measure going forward.

I know I can find people to buy PB, I am not positive I can get them ranked third in google for crunchy peanut butter and have 1000 visitors a day with a 1.5% CTR. To try and shave it that thin is just not wise in my estimation.
Hope this helps you.

[BTeubner]

Well said, I agree. There's too much uncertainty. I'd be shocked if anyone could guesstimate (at the keyword-level) with any decent level of accuracy. Overall % improvements are a bit easier to ballpark guesstimate.